The crypto market is currently sensitive to US macro data prints due to the absence of significant catalysts.
Bitcoin's Current Market Situation
On 9th September, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $55,500 after mild losses heading into the weekend, which resulted in negative returns of 4.26% for the week. Despite not being as deep as the 11% slide in the preceding week, the slightly underwhelming close marked consecutive weekly losses for Bitcoin since 10th June. Last week’s dip was attributed to the U.S. non-farm payroll data and negative flows from Bitcoin ETFs. The latest U.S. jobs report revealed that the economy added 142,000 non-farm payrolls in August, falling short of the expected 160,000.
Upcoming Market Influences
This week, market participants are anticipating more U.S. economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s 18th September rate decision and impact the overall market direction. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report and the Producer Price Index data. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed out that the outcome of the upcoming US Presidential debate and the nature of the regulatory environment are not accounted for in the current market. They forecast that Bitcoin could fall to the $30,000 to $40,000 range if Democrat nominee Kamala Harris is elected as President. In contrast, a Trump victory in the November elections could propel Bitcoin above $80,000 by the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin's Future Price Predictions
Chart trader Peter Brandt noted that technical indicators are increasingly leaning in favor of his initial low $30,000 range projection. He stated, “Currently, my Bayesian Probability for sub-$40,000 is at 65% with a yet-to-be-achieved top at $80,000 at 20% and an advance during this halving cycle to $130,000 by September 2025 at 15%.” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, also opined that Bitcoin reached a cycle top in April, drawing attention to reduced Bitcoin network activity after Q1. Despite the sluggish trading since the halving, some analysts contend that Bitcoin is poised for further gains based on the price action in previous halving years. Bitcoin is currently trading near $55,400 after posting the lowest weekly close since late February. The BTC weekly RSI similarly closed at its lowest level since the start of 2023. Bitcoin order books hint at a potential bullish setup on the horizon, as does the Bitcoin CME futures chart. Bitcoin futures opened higher than last week, moving back into a descending wedge pattern after briefly breaking below it.
The Bitcoin market remains significantly influenced by US macroeconomic data and political events, creating volatility and uncertainty for crypto investors.
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