The emerging debates around the relevance of the classic four-year Bitcoin halving cycle highlight changes in approaches to assessing its market impact.
A New Perspective on the Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin expert Pierre Rochard expresses the view that classic four-year cycles are likely over. He points out that halvings no longer affect trading volumes, as 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. According to him, most of the supply comes from early holders selling, while the demand is shaped by retail investors, platforms offering Bitcoin ETFs, and companies adding cryptocurrency to their balance sheets.
The Influence of Institutional Factors
Recently, the topic of institutional investment has come to the forefront. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated that the influence of halving on the market is weakening as institutional adoption increases and regulatory clarity improves. Hougan predicts that long-term forces will define Bitcoin's future, and sees 2026 as a period of steady growth rather than a super-cycle.
Existing Views and Predictions
Crypto analyst CRYPTO₿IRB argues that the rise of ETFs only strengthens the cycles by aligning cryptocurrency with traditional finance. Meanwhile, crypto expert and YouTuber Benjamin Cowen notes that Bitcoin continues to follow familiar post-halving patterns, showing gains in July and August, then dipping in September.
Thus, while the classic four-year halving cycle is losing its dominant role in Bitcoin's market movements, it has not completely vanished. Current macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand are becoming more significant.
