The analysis of the digital ruble's implementation in Russia shows potential benefits for businesses and risks for the banking sector. This step is expected to bring significant sums to the economy.
Economic Benefits of Digital Ruble for Businesses
According to forecasts by the National Rating Agency, the digital ruble could generate up to 260 billion rubles (approximately $3.3 billion) annually for the Russian economy by 2031. A significant portion of this effect will support businesses, with benefits estimated at 30-50 billion rubles annually (over $600 million).
Impact on Banks and Potential Losses
While companies may see benefits from the digital ruble, banks are expected to face losses in the early years of its implementation. Banks could lose 5-8 billion rubles (less than $100 million) in revenues. In a pessimistic scenario, by 2027, the total damage to banks could reach 45-95 billion rubles (around $1.2 billion), which constitutes about 8-10% of total net profits in the banking sector.
Risks Associated with Digital Ruble Implementation
Despite expectations of positive effects from the digital ruble, experts warn of risks including potentially higher financing costs and pressure on traditional payment systems. There are also threats posed by emerging technologies, such as quantum computing, which could facilitate fraud and breach security systems.
The implementation of the digital ruble in Russia may lead to significant changes in the economy. However, banks will face challenges that will require adaptation to new conditions and potential risks.
