Ethereum shows significant growth, reaching $4,200, and is now on the verge of a key resistance level at $4,400.
Long-Term Bulls vs Short-Term Bears
The latest analysis from CryptoQuant shows that momentum indicators like the MACD and buying volume remain positive, despite nearing a historically significant supply zone.
On-chain data presents a mixed picture. The Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) across all exchanges has been steadily declining since 2022 and is currently hovering around 0.16, indicating that investors are withdrawing ETH from exchanges, reducing sell-side liquidity. This trend is a structurally bullish signal for the long term.
However, Binance-specific metrics tell a different short-term story. The Binance ESR has been climbing since early 2025 and reached about 0.04, suggesting some holders are moving ETH onto the platform, possibly for selling or participation in exchange programs.
Recent netflow data also shows significant positive inflows into Binance, which, given the proximity to major resistance, may signal readiness for selling.
Retail Hype and Institutional Positioning
Ethereum's recent surge is driven by a mix of retail enthusiasm and institutional accumulation. A recent report by CryptoPotato stated that social media sentiment strongly favors the bulls, with hashtags like #buying and #bullish trending nearly double the rate of bearish tags. Santiment revealed that while optimism is high, excessive FOMO could briefly cool momentum.
Meanwhile, institutional interest has also been significant – between July 10 and early August, over 1.035 million ETH, worth roughly $4.17 billion, were acquired by large players at an average price of $3,546. These purchases, made through exchanges and institutional channels, aligned with a 45% rally from $2,600.
Current Market Conditions and Forecasts
In conclusion, the data suggests different scenarios. A breakout above $4,400 could occur if Binance inflows subside or ESR stabilizes, potentially pushing ETH towards $4,800 and a retest of its all-time high. Conversely, continued heavy inflows and rejection at $4,400 could lead to a pullback toward the $3,950-$4,000 support zone before another breakout attempt. The broader downtrend in all-exchange ESR supports a bullish macro outlook, but short-term traders should closely monitor Binance ESR and netflows for signs of near-term selling pressure.
Thus, despite current short-term risks, Ethereum's long-term prospects remain positive, and investors should observe market developments.
