An examination of current market conditions for Ethereum indicates potential price movement above $4,000 based on wave theory and open position data in the futures market.
Ethereum's Wave Structure
The price structure of Ethereum indicates the completion of a full corrective Wave 4 and a potential start of Wave 5 on the 3-day chart. Analysts note that ETH responded at the 50% Fibonacci level, providing solid support. The Fibonacci zone between 0.618 and 0.65 acted as a bounce zone, defining upward movement.
Futures Market and Open Interest
Open interest on ETH futures has steadily increased since June, aligning with rising prices across spot and derivative markets. Data shows a surge in open interest to multi-year highs, supporting positive trends and indicating strong market participation. This suggests that ETH may continue to rise without deep retracements.
Resistance and Breakout Potential
On the weekly chart, Ethereum faces several rejections around the $3,950–$4,000 zone but continues to form higher lows. The resistance around $4,000 has become critical, with the wave structure indicating that a breakthrough may lead to a price of $4,500. The chances of a breakout are increasing if support holds.
The state of the Ethereum market suggests potential price growth; however, overcoming the key resistance level at $4,000 will be crucial for reaching $4,500.
