The chances of Ethereum reaching $5,000 by the end of August have significantly decreased, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
Change in Trader Sentiment
Over the weekend, Polymarket users assessed the probability of ETH reaching $5,000 at 64%, but as of August 18, this figure has dropped to 26%. This reflects uncertainty following price volatility, with the asset's value decreasing by several hundred dollars.
Bets on hitting $4,800 before September now hold a 47% chance, which is significantly lower than previous projections above 90%. Currently, ETH is trading around $4,335, down more than 5% in the last 24 hours.
Broader Market Context
Despite the short-term jitters, Ethereum continues to attract institutional investments. According to Santiment, over $2.8 billion flowed into ETFs in just five trading days. Companies like Bitmine and SharpLink have opted to increase their reserves in ETH rather than BTC. As per Arkham, SharpLink alone now holds more than $1.65 billion worth of ETH. Additionally, there is a notable rise in Ethereum inflows to exchanges and record trading volumes relative to BTC, indicating that some traders may be preparing to take profits after the recent rally.
Ethereum's Prospects
Ethereum's failure to break its 2021 high of $4,878 leaves room for optimism. Unlike Bitcoin, which has already set new records above $124,000 this month, ETH is still chasing its cycle peak, presenting potential for price increases.
The overall decline in the chances of ETH reaching $5,000 indicates a shift in trader sentiment, yet the market remains positive in the long term.
