JPMorgan analysts have suggested that Ethereum may dodge classification as a security by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) because of its increasing decentralization. They pointed out that the role of Lido in staked Ether has decreased, reducing concerns about concentration in the Ethereum network. This shift could improve the likelihood that Ethereum will not be considered a security in the future. If Ethereum avoids this classification, it could result in a higher probability of regulatory approval for spot Ether ETFs by the SEC. Furthermore, Ethereum's recent Dencun upgrade is seen as positioning the network as the ultimate settlement layer for the Ethereum ecosystem. Additionally, Layer 2 and upcoming Layer 3 solutions are expected to significantly decrease transaction costs on Ethereum, which might lead to a rise in Ethereum's Total Value Locked (TVL) as decentralized applications on alternative Layer 1 blockchains decrease. JPMorgan's prediction aligns with the SEC's previous statements about a "sufficiently decentralized" network potentially not being classified as a security, which could lead to the creation of a new investor-protective but non-security category for assets like Ethereum.
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