Recent lighthearted remarks by President Nayib Bukele about betting markets have sparked significant interest in the country's Bitcoin strategy.
Trader Interest in Bets
President Nayib Bukele ignited fresh interest by joking on social media about the bets on prediction market Kalshi. This coincided with a sudden surge in betting activity, briefly pushing the odds of El Salvador hitting the $1 billion Bitcoin target by November from 20% to nearly 40%. Competing platform Polymarket also rolled out its version, placing a 43% chance on reaching this goal by December 2025.
Transparency Questions
El Salvador's Bitcoin policy has been surrounded by controversy. In 2024, finance officials told the IMF that new purchases had stopped after securing a $1.4 billion loan, while Bukele and the country's Bitcoin Office continued to post about ongoing acquisitions, leaving outsiders questioning the accuracy of official figures. However, this has not deterred crypto supporters from celebrating the strategy as a bold experiment.
Rise of Prediction Platforms
The popularity of the wager also highlights the growth of prediction platforms themselves. Just last week, a new project, Clearing Company, led by a former Polymarket and Kalshi executive, secured $15 million in funding from backers including Coinbase Ventures, underscoring investor appetite for real-money forecasting tools.
Betting on El Salvador's Bitcoin stash opens up new horizons for traders and continues to excite the crypto industry, raising questions about how national budgets may depend on such predictions in the future.
