Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan from Bitwise Asset Management has declared that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is no longer valid, predicting that 2026 could be a breakout year for Bitcoin.
Why the Four-Year Cycle May No Longer Matter
Hougan claims Bitcoin halvings are losing their significance, becoming 'half as important' every four years due to diminishing supply shocks. He noted that current interest rate trends favor crypto, as lower rates could lead investors to shift from bonds to riskier assets like Bitcoin.
Institutional Forces Now Drive the Market
Hougan highlighted the rise of Bitcoin treasury firms as a significant factor, collecting Bitcoin to strengthen their balance sheets. This developing trend may lead to risks if the market turns bearish, revealing vulnerabilities in these firms, especially in light of the improving regulation and institutional support that mitigate market volatility.
New Perspectives on Bitcoin's Future
Despite divisions among analysts on the future of the four-year cycle, both Hougan and other experts like CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju emphasize that the traditional model is becoming obsolete. Although analysts like Rekt Capital continue to support historical patterns, evolving institutional interests and regulatory clarity may signal a new era for Bitcoin.
Hougan's insights prompt a re-evaluation of the many factors influencing Bitcoin's market dynamics. Given institutional trends and regulatory improvements, market expectations may shift to accommodate a more mature economic behavior.
