Coinbase analysts confidently forecast positive trends in the cryptocurrency market despite potential seasonal fluctuations and historical patterns.
Factors Supporting the Crypto Market
Coinbase analysts David Duong and Colin Basco highlight several macroeconomic advantages that bolster the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) benefits from favorable economic conditions, while regulatory signals play a crucial role in sustaining market momentum.
> "Barring a shock to energy prices we think the immediate risk to disrupting the current U.S. monetary policy path is actually quite low," the analysts remarked.
On-chain demand from digital asset treasuries (DATs) further stabilizes prices, helping protect the market against potential downturns.
Seasonal Patterns: Are They Still a Concern?
A persistent worry for investors has been the historical performance of Bitcoin during September. From 2017 to 2022, the cryptocurrency suffered declines, leading to trepidation as September rolls around. However, this pattern did not repeat in 2023 and 2024, suggesting the limits of relying solely on seasonal trends. Moreover, the small sample size diminishes the reliability of such patterns, encouraging a broader examination of market influences.
Impact of Current Dynamics on Investors
Publicly disclosed data shows a significant holding of cryptocurrencies by DATs, with over a million BTC, 4.9 million ETH, and 8.9 million SOL held as of September. This indicates a stable underlying factor supporting current prices.
> "A more meaningful factor is where we are in the DAT cycle," Coinbase highlighted.
The market shift toward high-risk altcoins implies a “player-versus-player” phase, suggesting potential advantages for larger-cap tokens and looming consolidation among smaller DAT participants.
Coinbase analysts suggest that these dynamics could pave the way for a strong ending to the year. Factors such as robust liquidity, supportive macroeconomic elements, and positive regulatory signals may promote this trend. Although uncertainties persist, the forecast cautiously projects a favorable environment for the crypto market moving forward.
