Kenneth Rogoff, a well-known Harvard economist, admitted that his forecast for Bitcoin was vastly wrong.
Initially Pessimistic Outlook
In March 2018, Rogoff suggested that Bitcoin was "far more likely" to fall to $100 than to reach $10,000. At that time, Bitcoin was experiencing a downturn, dropping from nearly $20,000 to around $11,000, and eventually plummeting to just over $3,000 by the end of the year.
Reasons Behind the Misjudgment
Rogoff identified his erroneous assumption that U.S. regulators would quickly implement measures to curb digital assets as a major mistake. He acknowledged being "far too optimistic" about the government enforcing "sensible" rules to restrain crypto's rise. Additionally, he underestimated Bitcoin's ability to evolve beyond a fringe payment network.
Current Status of Bitcoin
The debate over Bitcoin's future continues. Legendary trader Peter Brandt recently argued that there is a strong chance Bitcoin has already peaked. However, proponents believe that the long-term trajectory still points upward, while skeptics see parallels to past market cycles.
Rogoff's reflection underscores that even seasoned economists can spectacularly misinterpret Bitcoin's trajectory. The cryptocurrency continues to defy expectations.
