Kenneth Rogoff, a prominent Harvard economist, acknowledged an error in his Bitcoin prediction, which he had forecasted to be around $100. A new analysis of his comments highlights the multiple factors influencing the cryptocurrency's growth.
Admission of Error
On August 19, 2025, Kenneth Rogoff admitted on his official account on X that his 2018 prediction of Bitcoin dropping to $100 was incorrect. Bitcoin's price has now surged beyond $124,000, contradicting his initial forecast.
Impact of Regulatory Inaction
Rogoff stated that his mistake stemmed from being overly optimistic regarding US regulatory measures and Bitcoin's potential to compete as a global transactional medium. He underestimated the impact of regulatory inaction and the usage of Bitcoin in the underground economy.
Future of Bitcoin
Rogoff's acknowledgment reflects the increasing involvement of institutional investors and a shift in perceptions regarding Bitcoin's value. Financial analysts suggest that federal inaction and greater adoption by major corporations have accelerated Bitcoin's acceptance. Furthermore, Bitcoin has become integral to the twenty-trillion-dollar global underground economy.
The economist's admission vividly illustrates how intricate factors such as regulatory behavior and the expanding black market can influence Bitcoin's dynamics. The cryptocurrency's future remains uncertain, with experts forecasting potential price volatility due to regulatory responses and shifts in global economic conditions.
