Three key updates related to the current state of the cryptocurrency market, including Harvard professor's call for regulatory review and insights into growing crypto popularity in Asia.
Rogoff’s Predictive Errors
Harvard economics professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff reflected on his 2018 prediction mistake regarding Bitcoin. He predicted Bitcoin would likely be worth $100, not $100,000, whereas its current price has surpassed $113,000, more than ten times higher than 2018 levels.
Rogoff admitted he was 'too optimistic' about U.S. crypto regulation and underestimated Bitcoin's role in the $20 trillion global underground economy.
Cryptocurrency Popularity Among Asian Investors
Wealthy families and family offices across Asia are increasing their crypto allocations, driven by bullish market trends and regulatory improvements. Wealth managers report surging inquiries, while exchanges see higher trading volumes.
Many family offices now consider cryptocurrencies an essential asset class, albeit with limited exposures of around 5% of their portfolios.
Fed's Neutral Position at Jackson Hole
T. Rowe Price’s chief U.S. economist Blerina Uruci suggested that Fed Chairman Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole may emphasize flexibility in upcoming policy decisions. Before the September 17 meeting, two reports on jobs and inflation will be released.
If inflation rises or labor markets improve, rates may remain unchanged, but if job growth falls below 50,000 and unemployment rises, a 50-basis-point cut could be on the table.
Rogoff's admissions and new trends among investors highlight the changing landscape of the cryptocurrency market. Expectations regarding Fed policy also inject uncertainty that may impact short-term price movements.
