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Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Search Interest and BTC Price

Apr 17, 2024

Interest in the upcoming Bitcoin halving is at a record high, as indicated by Google Trends. The phrase "Bitcoin halving" has reached its peak popularity score of 100 on Google Trends, the highest level in Bitcoin's history. Although interest has slightly declined by 37%, it is still at notably high levels.

Bitcoin halving: What is it and what does it mean for crypto prices?

Bitwise, the world's third-largest crypto exchange, predicts that Bitcoin's price may underperform in the short term following the halving. However, historical data suggests that the year after each halving event has seen significant percentage gains in Bitcoin's price. For example, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's price soared by 8,839% in the following year. Similar growth patterns were observed post-2020 halving, with a 548% price rally in the year that followed.

On the contrary, there is a possibility that Bitcoin's price might fall in the immediate month after the halving, as seen in the 10% drop post the 2016 halving event. Yet, the following year still witnessed a price gain of 285%, reaching a peak of $20k.

Industry executives share a bearish outlook regarding Bitcoin's short-term performance. Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10X Research, warned that miners might dump $5 billion worth of BTC to compensate for the reduced revenue. Marathon CEO Fred Thiel also mentioned that the pre-halving rally has already been incorporated, leading to an early occurrence of what was expected to be a post-halving rally.

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