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Impact of US Employment Report on Bitcoin Decline

Jul 5, 2024

Amid the volatile cryptocurrency market, significant attention is focused on the current US employment report, potentially influencing the downward trend of Bitcoin (BTC). Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency in terms of market value, saw a notable drop below $54,000, experiencing its most substantial weekly loss since the FTX incident in November 2022. The recent decline of Bitcoin, exceeding 13% for the week, was partly driven by the now-defunct Mt. Gox's movement of $2.6 billion worth of BTC for creditor reimbursements. Mt. Gox's announcement of initiating refunds to its clients elicited a muted response from the Bitcoin market.

The upcoming release of the June nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday is highly anticipated. Economists surveyed by FactSet forecast an addition of 190,000 jobs in June, a notable decrease from the previous month's 272,000 additions, maintaining the unemployment rate at 4%.

In a positive development regarding inflation, the growth rate of average hourly earnings decreased to 0.3% in June from 0.4% in May, indicating a year-on-year increase of 3.9% compared to 4.1% in May.

Macro investors, who have shown increasing interest in the Bitcoin market since 2020, are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate adjustments. Following recent soft US PCE inflation data, investors have factored in almost two rate cuts for this year, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The outcome of today's employment data could further influence expectations of interest rate adjustments based on the level of growth revealed.

This article does not provide investment advice.

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