An upcoming Bitcoin halving event is set to occur on April 20th. In the past, data has shown that the month following this event has not always led to positive price movements. Historically, after the last three halving events, prices declined in the month after, but the subsequent year saw significant price increases.
Past Halving Cycles and the 2024 Halving Process
For example, after the 2012 halving event, Bitcoin's value increased by 9% in the month following, but the next year saw an 8,839% increase. A similar trend was seen after the 2016 halving event, with a 10% drop the following month and a 285% increase in 2017. Following the 2020 halving event, there was a 6% price increase in the month after, leading to a 548% price increase.
The current market cycle has been marked by Bitcoin reaching an all-time high before a halving event. It peaked at $73,679 on March 13 and has since corrected to $61,500, reflecting a 16% decrease.
Industry Experts Comment on Halving
Industry experts have expressed concerns for the short term. Markus Thielen from 10x Research predicted $5 billion in miner sales post-halving, leading to downward pressure on the markets. Marathon CEO Fred Thiel has suggested that the halving rally has already been priced in and discussed potential post-rally scenarios.
Investor and analyst Rekt Capital published a list of market correction magnitudes since the 2022 bear market bottom. There have been significant pullbacks ranging from 18% to 23%, with the markets currently correcting by 16% and potentially facing further declines.
Analyst Cold Blooded Shiller implied that 30% corrections may be on the horizon, indicating a possible drop to $51,000.
