In recent weeks, experts have begun to discuss the possibility of change in Bitcoin's historically predictable four-year cycles due to increasing institutional investments and the accumulation of nearly one million bitcoins by corporate treasuries.
Impact of Institutional Participation on the Market
The debate centers on whether institutional participation has fundamentally changed Bitcoin's market structure. Investor Jason Williams noted the scale of corporate adoption in a post on X, stating, "This is why the Bitcoin four-year cycle is over."
Evolution of Market Structure
Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, also agreed that the cycles seem to be finished. He argued that Bitcoin halvings have become "immaterial to trading float" because 95% of Bitcoin has already been mined. He believes current supply dynamics depend on "buying out OGs," while demand comes from "the sum of retail, ETPs added to wealth platforms, and treasury companies."
Doubts about the End of Cycles
Not all analysts agree that the cycles are over. Crypto analyst "CRYPTO₿IRB" stated that claims about the end of the four-year cycle are wrong. He noted that ETFs have actually strengthened crypto's four-year cycles, as traditional finance operates on four-year presidential cycles.
As institutional adoption increases, the cryptocurrency industry faces a key question about Bitcoin's future price behavior. Whether the traditional four-year cycle becomes obsolete or evolves will likely become clearer by 2026 when the next expected peak period arrives.
