Several important economic reports are expected this week that could significantly impact international markets and US economic policy.
Key Reports of the Week
This section reviews key reports expected to be released this week.
1. **OPEC Report** - Tuesday Release of the monthly OPEC report, providing insights into global oil supply and demand. A decrease in supply could lead to price increases.
2. **CPI and PPI Data** - Tuesday and Thursday The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July will show changes in prices paid by consumers, critical for inflation expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reflects wholesale prices and serves as an indicator for future consumer prices.
3. **Retail Sales** - Friday Retail Sales data will provide insights into consumer spending, which can support economic growth and influences inflation levels.
4. **Consumer Sentiment Index** - Friday The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index measures confidence in the economy, affecting consumption and investment.
Fed's Response to Inflation
Inflation data this week will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's meeting in September. They are targeting a 2% inflation rate. If CPI and PPI are higher than expected, it may reduce the likelihood of another rate cut. Conversely, if they show cooling prices, the Fed might continue easing policy.
Market and Crypto Impact
High volatility is expected in the stock, bond, and crypto markets. Changes in interest rates affect investors' risk appetites. In particular, the crypto market may respond positively to softer inflation data, potentially triggering price breakouts. The rise of AI-driven trading models is also noted, increasing short-term market volatility.
This week is likely to be decisive for market direction. With OPEC reports, PPI data, retail sales figures, and consumer sentiment indexes aligning, it will set the tone for the Fed's September meeting.
