The latest report on unemployment and non-farm payroll data in the US has provided crucial insights for financial markets. These figures help assess the current state of the US economy.
Key Indicators
The released data includes the following figures:
- Unemployment rate: 4.2% (expected: 4.2%) - Non-farm payrolls: +73K (expected: +110K) - Private sector employment: +83K (expected: +100K) - Hourly earnings (Y/Y): +3.9% (expected: +3.8%) - Hourly earnings (M/M): +0.3% (expected: +0.3%) - Participation rate: 62.2% (expected: 62.3%) - Manufacturing employment: -11K (expected: -3K) - Average weekly hours: 34.3 hours (expected: 34.2) - Broadly defined unemployment (U-6): 7.9%
Previous Data and Its Impact
Last month's non-farm payroll data surprised markets by coming in 37,000 jobs higher than expected. The figure, which was 110,000, actually came in at 147,000, further demonstrating the strength of the US labor market.
Connection to Global Markets
A strong correlation was previously noted between US employment data and euro yields in 2024, but this relationship has weakened significantly in recent times. For maturities up to two years, the correlation is nearly zero. Conversely, the link with the US remains stronger for British pound yields. 10-year UK government bonds (Gilts), in particular, are more sensitive to movements in US Treasuries.
Analyzing the data on unemployment and employment in the US helps assess the country's economic resilience. These indicators could significantly impact financial markets in the future.
