Recent changes in market dynamics indicate growing pessimism regarding Bitcoin's long-term prospects, which is reflected in the options market.
Shift in Long-Term Expectations
The skew indicator for 180-day options on Deribit has fallen to zero, signaling a lack of clear direction in the market. This decrease indicates declining investor confidence in long-term bullish forecasts for Bitcoin.
Changes in Investor Strategies and Market Dynamics
The imbalance between call and put options serves as a significant indicator of market sentiment. A positive skew indicates a bullish outlook, whereas zero and negative values suggest cautious or bearish market behavior.
Some institutional investors are selling high-priced call options to hedge risks and generate additional income, which has lowered the relative price of call options.
Macroeconomic Uncertainties and Their Effects
Last week, Bitcoin’s price fell by approximately 4%, nearing its previous record. The rise in the core PCE index in the U.S. and the failure of non-farm payroll data to meet expectations have heightened uncertainties in the economic outlook.
In the current environment, long-term forecasts for Bitcoin remain uncertain, and investors should closely monitor economic indicators and market signals.
