Bitcoin analyst PlanC recently highlighted that expecting Bitcoin to hit its cycle high by the end of this year might be based on a misunderstanding of statistics and probability.
Forecasts and Statistics
Many traders and analysts have offered forecasts about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, but PlanC cautions that those foreseeing a Q4 peak lack a solid statistical basis. He explained that assuming Bitcoin must peak in Q4 is like expecting a coin flip to land tails four times consecutively after flipping tails three times—a common fallacy in probabilistic reasoning.
Rationale for Trends
The analyst also argued that the traditional halving cycle is becoming less relevant to Bitcoin’s price, especially considering trends like the growth of Bitcoin treasury companies and substantial inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. PlanC mentioned there is no fundamental reason, aside from a psychological self-fulfilling prophecy, that Bitcoin should peak in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Market Outlook for 2026
If the halving cycle still influences the market, Bitcoin could face a downtrend as soon as October, with some analysts warning about an end to the bull run. Market participants remain divided on whether Bitcoin will reach its peak by year-end or continue growing into 2026. Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, estimates more than a 50% probability that Bitcoin reaches $140,000 to $150,000 this year before entering another bear market. Conversely, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, predicts 2026 will be a bullish year. A number of analysts have also forecast Bitcoin’s price could top $250,000 before the end of 2025, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett, Unchained Market Research Director.
Thus, despite optimistic forecasts, significant uncertainty remains regarding future Bitcoin price trends. Analysts stress the importance of relying on broader statistics and data before making definitive predictions.
