The prediction platform Polymarket faced declining user activity but is preparing for a potential return to the US market through strategic actions.
Decline in User Activity
Polymarket experienced a significant decline in active users in 2025. Monthly active users dropped from a peak of 454,664 in January to 193,023 by August 26. This marks the lowest count since October 2024, according to Dune data. New user registrations also saw a decrease, from 408,804 in February to just 117,386 in March. As of August 26, there were only 54,257 new users registered, the lowest figure since July 2024.
Closure of Federal Investigation
On July 15, federal investigators closed concurrent criminal and civil probes into Polymarket. This came after letters were issued that ended inquiries by both the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The investigations focused on whether American users continued accessing the platform through virtual private networks post the 2022 settlement.
Strategic Acquisitions and Political Support
Polymarket quickly moved to capitalize on regulatory clarity by acquiring the holding company behind QCX LLC and QC Clearing LLC for $112 million on July 21. This acquisition provided CFTC-regulated licenses for compliant US operations. Additionally, on August 26, Donald Trump Jr. joined the platform's advisory board, adding political backing as the company strategizes for expansion into the US market.
Polymarket's re-entry into the US could help reverse the current decline in user activity by providing access to a significant number of American traders.
