Recent research in quantum technologies conducted by IBM has drawn attention to the potential threats that may arise for Bitcoin and its cryptographic protection.
Cryptography and Bitcoin
Bitcoin uses several cryptographic algorithms for security, among which one of the most recognized is the SHA-256 hash function. This algorithm transforms data into a hash, which is a very large number. "Mining bitcoins" is the process in which miners convert block data into a hash, hoping to find a value less than a target number, which requires significant computational resources.
The 6-bit Key Issue
To date, IBM has demonstrated the capability to attack a 6-bit ECC key using its IBM_TORINO quantum computer, which operates on 133 physical qubits. While a successful attack on such a small key is not significant in cryptographic terms, it confirms the feasibility of quantum attacks. Given that breaking a 256-bit key requires a much greater potential for quantum computation, IBM's current successes still raise concerns about the degree of threat.
The Future of Bitcoin Amid Quantum Threats
Experts from the Pauli group suggest that Bitcoin may face a real risk of being broken within a 3 to 10-year horizon, with a higher likelihood leaning toward 2033. This necessitates initiating work to transition to post-quantum cryptographic algorithms and updating protocols to minimize risks. It is also important to note that around 33% of all bitcoins are vulnerable due to address reuse, creating additional risks.
Quantum technologies pose a potential threat to Bitcoin; however, there is still a long way to go before any real risk emerges. Continuous research for solutions to ensure security and adaptability to potential changes in cryptographic technologies is essential.
