In recent years, the crypto market has shown changes in the classic four-year cycle, traditionally based on Bitcoin halvings, interest rates, and major industry crashes.
Trends in Bitcoin's Cycle
Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high, surpassing $123,000. Bitcoin cycles typically last around 1,070 days from the market bottom to the next peak. If this trend continues, the current bull market could persist until October 20, 2025.
Long-Term Forces vs. Classic Cycle
Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, believes the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle is losing significance. He notes that halvings matter less, and with clear regulations, the likelihood of major blowups decreases. ETF adoption is just beginning, and he expects institutional money to grow in the coming 5-10 years.
Forecasts and Risks Ahead for 2026
Despite Hougan's views, other analysts like Ki Young Ju argue that the old Bitcoin cycle is over, and patterns are no longer effective. However, some, including Fidelity analyst Jurrien Timmer, still see Bitcoin closely tracking its four-year cycle, predicting peaks around $250,000 by the end of 2025.
Current trends indicate that the crypto market is at a crossroads between old and new cycles. The discussion of long-term factors, such as institutional interest and changes in major players' behavior, continues to spark interest in Bitcoin's prospects and its impact on the overall market.
