According to Bloomberg analysts, the SEC is beginning to approve applications for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on cryptocurrencies. This may significantly change the market.
High Hopes for Altcoin ETF Approvals
James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence stated that the probability of approval for a significant portion of spot crypto ETF applications has risen to over 90%. This optimistic sentiment is based on the SEC's engagement with applicants, seen as a positive development. Assets such as Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano are expected to have high approval probabilities.
SEC’s Evolving Stance
The SEC’s acceptance of 19b-4 forms and requests for S-1 amendments are viewed positively by crypto market experts. They believe that increased communication between the SEC and fund issuers indicates a more relaxed approach. Analysts note that more active dialogue in disputed ETF processes leads to higher chances of approval. James Seyffart added, "We have raised the approval probabilities for the majority of spot crypto ETF applications to 90% or above."
The Status of SUI and Other Assets
The approval probability for SUI among filed assets remains limited. The SUI ETF application, filed solely by Canary, maintains a 60% likelihood of approval. The main factors are the lack of regulated futures and regulatory uncertainties. Participants on the Polymarket platform predict that approval for spot crypto ETFs will occur within this year. Predictions show a 98% likelihood for XRP’s ETF approval, 91% for Solana, and 71% for Dogecoin.
Analyst forecasts and market expectations point to a pivotal period for the U.S. crypto asset ETF sector. Transparency and cooperation from the SEC could reduce uncertainties in the industry and promote innovation in the market.
