The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has again delayed decisions on XRP ETF proposals from 21Shares and CoinShares. The expectations for a final verdict in October lead to increased market volatility.
Traders’ Heightened Expectations
According to Bloomberg analysts, the probability of XRP ETF approval remains high at 95%. However, Polymarket bettors have more modestly estimated the odds at 78%. Trader confidence has changed over the past few months; in June, odds reached 98%, dipped to 65% in early August, and have since started to recover, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the SEC's ultimate decision.
Institutional Players Stand Aside
Speculation that BlackRock would pursue an XRP ETF ended when the firm confirmed it will not compete in this market. Franklin Templeton has become the most notable applicant. Fidelity, while moving ahead with a Solana ETF, has also chosen not to file for XRP. Meanwhile, Democratic Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw has expressed vocal disapproval of crypto products, yet there remains hope for approval in October.
ProShares ETFs and Their Impact on XRP
In July, NYSE Arca approved the listing of two new leveraged ETFs from ProShares: the Ultra XRP ETF and the Ultra Solana ETF. The Ultra XRP ETF offers investors twice the daily return of XRP's performance, though ProShares warns of volatility and regulatory pressures. XRP is currently trading at $3.02 after a 3% decline for the day and a 6% drop over the past week, dipping below $3 at one point but rebounding thereafter. The SEC's final decision in October will continue to influence trader sentiment.
Trader expectations continue to heighten in response to the SEC's delay in the XRP ETF decision, creating considerable uncertainty in the market. The final verdict in October will represent a critical event for XRP and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.
