August and September have been historically unfavorable months for Bitcoin investors. According to historical data, the risk of losses during these months is quite high.
Historical Price Dynamics of Bitcoin
Data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) has seen price declines in August and September in 8 of the last 12 years, indicating a likelihood of a decrease of approximately 67%. Specifically, Bitcoin experienced significant drops: -2.85% in Q3 2022, -21.51% in 2019, -2.85% in 2018, and -13.54% in 2014. The average return for Bitcoin in the third quarter was only 1.46%, while the median return was negative at -1.46%.
Comparison with Other Cryptocurrencies
In comparison, Ethereum (ETH) also shows poor performance in the third quarter. For instance, ETH gained +25.01% in Q3 2022, but saw declines of -18.9% in 2021, -38.82% in 2019, and -37.28% in 2018. Ethereum's average return in the third quarter was 5.72%, but the median return was only 3.02%, indicating limited earning potential.
Conclusion on Current Trends
August has been noted as the most negative month in returns over the last 12 years, with drops like -13.88% in 2022, -17.27% in 2014, and -9.05% in 2013. September also shows significant declines, with reductions of -24.92% in 2014, -13.38% in 2019, and -3.59% in 2022. The average return in September remains in negative territory, highlighting the risks of investing during this period.
Considering historical data and current trends, investors should exercise caution in August and September, as both months display a high likelihood of losses for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
