Analysts forecast a short-term Bitcoin rally, potentially reaching $58,708 due to macroeconomic factors and market sentiment.
Short-Term Bitcoin Rally
According to the latest forecast by QCP Capital, the upcoming quarter may offer interesting opportunities for investors. The company's analysis points to a short-term Bitcoin rally, potentially targeting $58,708. QCP Capital notes that macroeconomic uncertainty greatly influences cryptocurrency markets, especially ahead of the US presidential debates. Recent data shows a 30-day correlation between BTC and the MSCI World Equity Index at 0.6, the highest level in the last two years. Additionally, QCP Capital highlights the growth in the options market on September 11, 2024, with 400 contracts struck at $57,500. The company also emphasizes the potential for Bitcoin growth as ETF Spot Bitcoin inflows turn positive again, supporting their structurally bullish view for Q4.
Market Recovery from Extreme Bearish Sentiment
Analysts from 10X Research also highlight the positive rebound in Bitcoin, which returned to $57,600 after a sharp decline last week. On-chain data indicates a recovery, suggesting the market is emerging from extreme bearish sentiment. The company emphasizes that while the bull market cycle may be shorter, traders who can foresee macroeconomic events still have opportunities. With shifting market sentiments, some traders who had bearish positions have started closing them, preparing for potential future movements.
The Fed's Expected Rate Cuts
Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 18, 2024, analysts discuss the possibility of rate cuts that could positively impact the cryptocurrency market. According to CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 73% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut, while a 27% probability of a 50 basis points cut. TradingEconomics forecasts the US interest rate to reach 5% by the end of this quarter, falling to 3.5% in 2025 and 3.25% in 2026. Financial expert Craig Shapiro from LaDuc Trading considers a significant 50 basis points rate cut unlikely, as it could cause market panic.
Macroeconomic factors and market sentiment continue to significantly influence Bitcoin's price. Analysts' forecasts show a potential short-term rally to $58,708 but also emphasize the need for caution in the current uncertain market conditions.
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