NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci has outlined a revised outlook on when exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on XRP and Cardano could receive regulatory approval in the U.S. His comments come as interest in the launch of new cryptocurrency ETFs continues to grow and the year draws to a close.
Regulatory Progress for ETFs
Geraci noted that the approval process for new altcoin ETFs could soon accelerate due to recent developments involving the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Nasdaq, and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE).
These major exchanges have submitted applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for standardized rules governing cryptocurrency ETF listings. The implementation of these rules would create a consistent framework for approving such products, reducing procedural delays.
In addition to these regulatory filings, the exchanges have also lodged 19b-4 applications with the SEC on behalf of various asset managers, targeting ETFs for several cryptocurrencies, including XRP, Solana, and Cardano. Geraci pointed out that more than 75 cryptocurrency ETF applications are currently under review by the SEC.
Increasing Demand for Crypto ETFs
Market demand for cryptocurrency ETFs remains strong, which could benefit any new XRP and Cardano products. Geraci pointed to 2024 inflows as evidence of investor interest, with over $26 billion moving into crypto ETFs this year. Bitcoin spot ETFs accounted for $19 billion of that figure, while Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $7 billion.
Most of the recent surge in interest has come in the past several months. In July alone, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $6 billion, and Ethereum ETFs collected $5.5 billion. Geraci attributes this momentum to a favorable regulatory environment.
Market Expectations for XRP and Cardano ETFs
Predictions from the decentralized betting platform Polymarket indicate a high probability of approval for both products in 2025. The likelihood of a Cardano spot ETF being approved next year is estimated at 85%, up from 63% the previous week. For XRP, the projected approval probability before the end of 2025 stands at 79%, an increase from 66% as of August 7.
Financial analysts, including those at JPMorgan, have suggested that XRP and Solana ETFs could draw between $3 billion and $8 billion in investment once approved, underscoring the significant market potential for these products.
With the SEC moving towards standardized listing requirements and demand for crypto ETFs at record levels, conditions appear promising for the launch of XRP and Cardano ETFs in the near term. If Geraci's projected timeline holds, approvals within the next two months could position these products to capture substantial investor interest, further expanding institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market.
