Fed futures are showing a high probability of interest rate cuts. Traders hope this will lead to a repeat of last year's cryptocurrency market rally.
Likelihood of Fed Rate Cuts
Fed funds futures imply a 98.5% probability of rate cuts by December 2025. CME data shows a 44.7% chance of rates falling to 375–400 basis points at the meeting on December 10, with only a 1.5% probability of maintaining rates at 425–450 basis points.
Comparison to Last Year
Many traders recall Bitcoin's rally after last year's rate cuts. Analyst BitBull noted that selling ahead of the September move turned out to be a costly mistake, prompting traders to position themselves for a similar breakout in 2025.
Market Forecasts and Analysis
Weak employment data and slowing inflation have increased calls for rate cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a possibility of reducing rates by 150–175 basis points. Goldman Sachs predicts three 25 basis point cuts this year and two more in 2026.
Considering the variety of opinions and market expectations, it seems likely that Fed rate cuts will occur in the future, potentially paving the way for new growth in Bitcoin and other altcoins.
