1. Polymarket Traders Bet on Harris
2. How Will the Bet Be Resolved?
3. Polymarket Predicts Trump to Win Election

Traders on the decentralized predictions marketplace Polymarket expect post-second U.S. presidential debate polls to show Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris as the winner.

Polymarket Traders Bet on Harris

Polymarket traders bet on crypto and practically any topic with an outcome, including whether Elon Musk will join Donald Trump’s cabinet. While the overall prediction leans towards Trump winning the election, the majority see post-debate polls favoring Harris.

How Will the Bet Be Resolved?

According to Polymarket, the bet on who wins the debate will resolve in favor of the Democratic candidate if the Ipsos/538 opinion poll shows Kamala Harris as the winner. If the poll shows Trump as the winner, the bet will resolve likewise. A 50-50 resolution will occur if the Ipsos/538 poll indicates an equal result. Traders have wagered so far around $150,000 on the outcome.

Polymarket Predicts Trump to Win Election

Ahead of the debate, many polls suggest a close race for the upcoming election. For instance, The New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris and Trump are neck in neck in the battle for the November 4, 2024 vote. The picture is also similar on Polymarket, where traders currently have their money on Trump at 52% compared to 47% for Harris. On Polymarket, the total bet on who wins stands at over $844 million.

Thus, Polymarket traders are confident in Kamala Harris's victory in the debate, despite the overall support for Donald Trump in the election. Time and polls will tell if their predictions hold true.