Donald Trump's odds of winning the upcoming election and potentially appointing Elon Musk to his cabinet have surged, according to recent Polymarket polls.
Polymarket Polls on Trump's Odds
A Polymarket poll with over $803 million in assets shows Donald Trump with a 53% chance of winning, compared to Kamala Harris's 46%. Another Polymarket poll with $77,000 in assets predicts Trump will win and appoint Elon Musk to his cabinet. These odds rose to 18% on September 5, up from 12% a day earlier. The poll will be deemed accurate if Trump wins and appoints Musk to lead one of the 15 executive departments or a cabinet-level role. Advisory roles will not count as cabinet-level appointments.
Musk Speaks on Possible Service
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump was considering Musk to lead a government efficiency commission, which would review the federal government to identify waste, reduce fraud, and prevent improper payments. Elon Musk has openly expressed his willingness to serve in some capacity in the government, though it is unclear if he would agree to step aside from his many ventures like SpaceX, Tesla, and X, which are regulated by the federal government. > "I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises. No pay, no title, no recognition is needed." > — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) September 5, 2024.
Trump and Musk-Themed Token Activity
After the WSJ report, Donald Trump and Elon Musk-themed tokens showed mixed results. The Elon (ELON) token rose by 9.4%, while the MAGA Hat (MAGA) rose by 2.3%. The MAGA (TRUMP) token, the biggest Trump-themed token, dropped by 17.5% over the last seven days. In the stock market, Tesla shares jumped by 4.8%, continuing its recent recovery which has pushed its market cap to over $733 billion. Trump Media & Technology stock was little changed, having retreated by over 36% in the last month. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) remained muted after the report.
It remains unclear whether Donald Trump will win the election, especially due to independent voters. Recent mainstream polls have sent mixed signals, but Kamala Harris leads in most of them and continues to gather fundraising momentum for her campaign.
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