Polymarket users placed nearly $5 million in bets to predict the exact words Donald Trump would say during his interview with Elon Musk on August 13. The word "tampon," mentioned by Trump at the last minute, yielded the highest returns for those who bet on it.
Most Popular Betting Words
Eleven different markets on Polymarket collectively attracted a total betting volume of $5 million. Popular betting topics included words such as "bitcoin," "crypto," "civil war," and "censorship." Terms like "MAGA" and "illegal immigrant" also drew significant interest.
The word "crypto" attracted the highest amount of money from bets, followed by "MAGA" and "illegal immigrant." During the interview, Trump used three of these words: "MAGA," "illegal immigrant," and "tampon."
How Odds Shifted During the Interview
The betting odds for "MAGA" were at 59%, almost doubling the bettors’ investments when Trump said it. "Illegal immigrant" had odds above 46%, but "tampon" was the real surprise, with odds at 7%, resulting in a 14-fold increase for last-minute bettors. A user congratulated "tampon brothers" after Trump mentioned the word, which had seen a sharp drop in odds just before being spoken.
Key Betting Insights
Last-minute bets on low-odds words can yield significant returns. Monitoring the trending words and comments in prediction markets can offer valuable insights. High-odds words may not always be the safest bet despite their popularity.
The interview between Trump and Musk took place on Space, an audio chat room on Musk’s social media platform X. Musk revealed that the interview was delayed by around 40 minutes due to a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack. Topics of discussion included immigration, inflation, and an attempted assassination on Trump.
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