Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin has made an assessment of the potential impact of quantum computers on modern cryptography, highlighting the risk of their use for breaking existing encryption methods by 2030.
The Threat of Quantum Computers
Buterin stated that he sees a 20% probability of quantum technology being able to break current encryption methods by 2030. He referred to predictive data from platforms like Metaculous, which forecasts that quantum computers could have the capability to break cryptography between 2030 and 2035. He also emphasized that while some companies claim to be developing quantum computers, they are actually working on quantum adiabatic computers, which are not capable of such feats.
Ethereum's Preparations
Buterin reported that the Ethereum ecosystem is actively preparing for potential quantum threats. He mentioned that Justin Drake is working on quantum-resistant signatures and noted that STARKs already possess quantum resistance, expressing optimism that Ethereum can adapt to the new challenges.
Experts' Opinions
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet acknowledged the seriousness of the risk but expressed that the probability might be lower than 20%. He highlighted that the transition to post-quantum cryptography, as mandated by NIST, should occur between 2030 and 2035. Guillemet also pointed out that adaptation may be challenging due to the decentralized structure of blockchain but reflected confidence in the sector's ability to respond quickly.
Thus, the cryptocurrency world continues to prepare for upcoming challenges posed by quantum technologies. Industry participants, including the founder of Ethereum and experts from Ledger, are working on solutions to safeguard systems and maintain their security.
