Crypto analyst, Rekt Fencer, posted a forecast indicating that altcoins are at oversold levels, allowing expectations for future gains.
What the Chart Shows
The chart compares the Others/ETH ratio on a two-week timeframe, highlighting oversold zones.
- In **2021**, altcoins surged **166%** from similar conditions. - In **2023**, they rallied again by **125%**. - Today, the chart suggests a possible **132% move ahead**, based on the same oversold indicator.
Skepticism from Some Analysts
Despite the compelling oversold signal, some analysts remain skeptical. Past altcoin recoveries were not driven solely by technicals, but aligned with broader shifts in BTC and ETH dominance, as well as liquidity trends in the crypto market.
Currently, BTC dominance remains stable just below **60%**, historically high levels. A sharp decline in Bitcoin dominance has often preceded altseasons, but this has not been observed yet.
Meanwhile, ETH dominance is slightly below **14%**.
Opinion: The Signal Isn’t Enough
Rekt Fencer’s optimism is understandable—oversold conditions often create attractive entry points. However, the crypto market is far more complex than one chart. Liquidity flows, ETF-driven capital rotation, and macroeconomic events could easily delay or mute any altcoin rally.
Currently, the data shows that altcoins may be due for a bounce, but calling this the 'final shakeout’ may be premature unless BTC dominance breaks down further and ETH regains strength above **15-16%**.
Thus, while data indicates a potential altcoin recovery, several factors must be considered before drawing final conclusions.
