Recent events have led to significant changes in the approval odds for the XRP ETF in the U.S. SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw announced her intent to vote against the proposal, which has caused market reactions.
Sharp Shift in ETF Approval Odds
Traders on the prediction market Polymarket have cut the odds for XRP ETF approval to 52% after learning about Commissioner Crenshaw's stance. Odds fell sharply from 87% to below 55%, but as of the time of this article, they have rebounded to 86%.
Analysts' Views on the Situation
Despite the volatility, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes concerns about the XRP ETF approval are overblown. He still maintains a 95% likelihood of approval, even after Crenshaw's negative vote. Balchunas noted that Crenshaw is often the sole voice of dissent on crypto matters.
Global Demand for XRP ETFs
Despite uncertainty in the U.S., demand for XRP ETFs is rising on a global scale. For instance, Japan's SBI Holdings has already submitted an application for an ETF that includes Bitcoin and XRP. Experts believe that the general trend at the SEC leans towards increased ETF approvals.
While opposition from the SEC Commissioner introduces short-term difficulties for the XRP ETF, the overall trend towards increased approvals and growing international interest may positively impact the future of this financial instrument.
