This analysis highlights the current market situation of XRP and the targets for growth defined through technical analysis, alongside the influence of regulatory changes.
Current Market Situation
As of the report time, XRP is trading at $3.19, indicating steady consolidation following significant gains in late 2024 and early 2025. The current price is well below the projected level of $12.60, requiring sustained momentum, significant volume inflows, and favorable macro conditions. Nonetheless, the breakout pattern identified last year continues to serve as a bullish structural reference point for traders monitoring XRP’s long-term chart.
Regulatory Developments as a Catalyst
The feasibility of reaching Ali’s target is influenced by technical factors as well as the broader regulatory backdrop. A pivotal moment occurred in mid-2025 when the long-running SEC vs. Ripple litigation reached effective closure. On June 26, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres denied a joint request by the SEC and Ripple to vacate certain injunctions and reduce Ripple’s penalty. Shortly after, both parties withdrew their appeals, solidifying earlier court rulings. The end of this legal uncertainty has been viewed as a potential catalyst, removing one of the largest obstacles to XRP’s broader adoption and price growth.
Potential Path to $12.60 Target
From a market dynamics perspective, achieving $12.60 would likely require a combination of bullish technical continuation, increased utility of the XRP Ledger (XRPL), and strength in the broader cryptocurrency market. Liquidity expansion, institutional adoption, and a shift towards risk-on sentiment in global markets could all contribute to such a rally. However, technical projections are not guarantees; they are scenarios based on historical behavior of patterns, and unforeseen macroeconomic or industry-specific factors can swiftly alter trajectories.
Ali's November 2024 multi-year triangle breakout call remains one of the most compelling bullish technical setups for XRP in recent years. While the $12.60 target is ambitious compared to current levels, it reflects the long-term potential many see in XRP’s market structure, especially now that regulatory clarity has emerged.
