In a recent analysis, popular crypto expert MarryParty has shed light on a significant yet often overlooked factor that has been suppressing Solana's price for nearly two years: the liquidation of FTX's substantial SOL holdings. According to the official information, his insights reveal the reasons behind the persistent sell pressure since early 2024 and suggest that this phase may soon come to an end.
MarryParty's Analysis of Solana's Price Movements
MarryParty argues that Solana's price movements since 2024 have not accurately reflected its fundamentals, adoption rates, or network strength. Instead, they have been heavily influenced by the forced selling dynamics stemming from the FTX bankruptcy. Initially, the FTX estate held around 55 million SOL, most of which was locked, and a court ruling mandated that these tokens be liquidated to repay creditors. This has resulted in a prolonged period of scheduled unlocks and controlled selling, preventing any significant price rallies.
Pivotal Auctions and Their Impact
The analyst highlights the 2024 auctions as a pivotal moment, where firms like Galaxy Digital, Pantera Capital, and Figure Technologies acquired a large portion of the locked supply at prices ranging from 64 to 102 SOL, significantly below market rates. However, these buyers inherited a vesting schedule extending through 2029, leading to a monthly absorption of approximately 930,000 SOL since the major unlock in March 2025. This influx caused a notable 17% price drop in March, which MarryParty attributes to supply pressure rather than a natural market correction.
Current Status of FTX Holdings
As of December 2025, around 38 million SOL from the original FTX holdings remains locked, but the analyst emphasizes that the bulk of aggressive selling has already occurred. The March unlock represented the largest release, and subsequent monthly vesting amounts are decreasing. Furthermore, the FTX estate is now operating with a surplus of 163 billion, providing ample resources to repay creditors without the need for rapid liquidation of tokens.
Future Outlook for Solana
The remaining SOL is being strategically sold off by institutional buyers who purchased the vesting contracts, rather than by Kroll directly, which helps to stabilize the market. MarryParty believes that as the vesting supply diminishes, Solana will begin to trade based on its true fundamentals, including ecosystem growth and user engagement, rather than the lingering effects of bankruptcy. He posits that this could lead to Solana reaching its 'true fair value' phase, potentially gravitating towards the 1,000 mark once the structural sell pressure is lifted. While the final vesting cycles are still in progress, the worst of the forced selling appears to be behind the market, allowing SOL to finally operate independently.
The Solana ecosystem is currently attracting significant investments in high-volatility assets, showcasing a shift in market dynamics. This trend contrasts with the previous pressures discussed in MarryParty's analysis. For more details, see high-volatility assets.
