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How the expiry of options will affect the price of BTC and ETH
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How the expiry of options will affect the price of BTC and ETH

May 24, 2024

Today, a significant number of options on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are expiring. This event can impact the prices of the underlying assets.

Cryptocurrency options are derivative contracts that allow traders to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price by the expiration date. Unlike futures, options do not obligate the owner to make a purchase or sale.

The total value of expiring 21,045 BTC contracts and 353,893 ETH contracts is $1.4 billion and $1.34 million, respectively.

Focus on Ethereum

According to Deribit, the put/call ratio for BTC options is 0.88, with a maximum pain point of $67,000. For ETH, the put/call ratio is 0.57, and the maximum pain point is $3,200. The SEC's decision on spot ETFs for Ethereum has significantly impacted the market.

Open Interest by Strike Price

"BTC, as expected, retreated amid very strong support from ETH prices. The current weighted implied volatility for ETH still exceeds 100%, while for BTC, it is only 50%. This rare occurrence is mainly due to the uncertainty surrounding ETF approval. The current level of divergence has already exceeded that seen during ETH's transition to PoS. Therefore, human-made policies are the biggest uncertainty," they claim.

Analysis of BTC Price Amid Expiration

This week, Bitcoin's price rose to $72,000 due to the influx of funds into spot ETFs. However, the asset couldn't sustain these levels and is trading at $67,500 at the time of writing, having lost 2.7% in the last 24 hours.

Ethereum also shows weak dynamics: despite the approval of eight spot ETFs, the price of the second-largest cryptocurrency capitalization below $4,000.

Predicting market behavior on the day of expiration is difficult, especially with other news influencing the market. Traders should closely monitor the situation to avoid unexpected losses. Usually, the impact of expiration is short-term, and the market quickly stabilizes.

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