A recent revelation from a researcher at Paradigm has cast doubt on the reported trading activity of the prediction market platform Polymarket. According to the authors of the publication, it is concerning that the platform's trading volume may be significantly overstated due to a data bug affecting major dashboards.
Double Counting of Polymarket's Trading Volume
According to Storm, a researcher at Paradigm, nearly every major analytics dashboard has been inadvertently double counting Polymarket's trading volume that is not associated with wash trading. This issue stems from the platform's intricate on-chain data structure, which includes redundant representations of each trade.
Impact on Volume Metrics
As a consequence, many dashboards have been aggregating these duplicate representations, resulting in inflated volume metrics. This revelation could potentially undermine Polymarket's perceived success in the crypto space. Particularly, it has been viewed as a standout performer amid the ongoing challenges in both spot and derivatives markets.
In a significant development, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 0.1 BTC has declined for the first time since 2009, reflecting changing investor behaviors. This contrasts with the concerns raised about Polymarket's inflated trading volume. For more details, see read more.
