Donald Trump's return to the presidency has seen the stock market deliver positive returns, but the gains have been modest compared to previous administrations. As the market navigates through a landscape shaped by technological advancements and global competition, the first year of Trump's second term has marked the slowest start for any president in two decades, based on the data provided in the document.
Market Performance Overview
According to data from CFRA Research, market indexes rose by 133 points between inauguration day and January 20, 2026. While this increase may seem substantial, it is the smallest first-year gain for a president since George W. Bush's second term in 2005. Notably, this performance falls short of Trump's previous record during his first term, when the markets surged by 241 points in the same timeframe.
Driving Forces Behind Stock Prices
The rally in stock prices throughout the year has been largely driven by investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence technology. However, foreign markets outperformed U.S. stocks in 2025, a trend that had not been observed in several years. This shift highlights a changing dynamic in global investment, as international markets begin to attract more attention.
Historical Context of Market Expectations
It's important to note that Trump assumed office following two consecutive years of significant growth in the S&P 500, which had seen annual increases of over 20%. This prior performance set high expectations for his second term, making the current market gains appear less impressive in comparison.
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