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Zeitgeist
Category: Others Blockchain: Moonbeam Language: English Platform: Web

Zeitgeist - a modern forecasting protocol

Zeitgeist is a prediction markets protocol that helps guide humanity towards truth and progress. The product represents a group of engineers who united in 2020 after years of collaboration in the Web 3 industry.

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Development History of Zeitgeist

CEO Logan Saether and CMO Chris "Hutch" Hutchinson were key figures in the creation of the "Dotsama" ecosystem (a hybrid name for Polkadot and Kusama), while COO David Perry had previously worked with Hutch.

All three saw the potential power of a decentralized prediction market protocol built on the Dotsama blockchains, and together formed Zeitgeist. The productive team started building proof of concepts and gathering resources to prepare for a significant launch. They teamed up with some of the most prestigious partners in Web 3, and by the end of 2020, they already had a solid proof of concept and an executable action plan.

In early 2021, a formidable team was formed, and for the first time, the Prediction Markets POC concept was presented to the public. This happened through the "Kusama Derby" - a prediction market for the first batch of Kusama Parachain Slot auctions, which accurately predicted the first three parachain slot winners on Kusama (Polkadot’s sister/canary chain Polkadot).

Since then, Zeitgeist has shown exponential growth and won its first Kusama parachain slot auction on the first attempt in October 2021. The team has been working tirelessly, preparing the protocol for launch as a fully decentralized live parachain on Kusama, with a perfectly functioning prediction market application and SDK.

With the SDK, the product's goal is to provide companies with the opportunity to implement futarchy in their organizations or use the protocol under their own brand for their own prediction market utility. There will be economic incentives for SDK creators, and the team invites companies or projects considering this option to discuss possibilities.

Forming Predictions in Zeitgeist

The world is saturated with information. But with this fortune comes a dilemma: It’s hard to know which information is true. Whether we like it or not, all information is created by individuals, and individuals are inherently biased. But without a crystal ball, how does one make decisions informed not by ego but by truth?

The answer lies in data. Time and again, data has proven there is wisdom in crowds — that the many are smarter than the few, and can more precisely predict true outcomes. When a crowd is incentivized to share their predictions by betting on what they think will happen (not what they want to happen), bias is eliminated, and truth follows. This method of trading, where people bet on outcomes, is called prediction markets.

Zeitgeist gives people a "stake in the game" — a vested interest in the outcome of a decision. Because they don't just stand to profit from betting on the truth... they stand to build a more equitable society because of it.

Zeitgeist uses prediction markets to apply a governance model called futarchy, where participants bet on the success of proposed decisions, then the winning decisions are implemented. Unlike traditional governance structures where votes don't always directly influence outcomes, futarchy ensures that when a decision is deemed likely to succeed, it's put into practice — without the influence of bias.

Protocol Application Technology

The team has created a first-level prediction markets protocol. It's possibly the most advanced protocol of its kind, allowing anyone to create a market on almost any topic and gain unique insights into what a likely outcome will be. By advancing this mechanism, the company is implementing a governance method called "futarchy" - where decisions are made based on prediction market signals, not just democracy "one person - one vote".

Prediction markets for governance is a groundbreaking form of consensus, as termed "futarchy" by Professor Robin Hanson, a prominent prediction market specialist.
Application Area Description
Sports and eSports Competitive games (real or digital) are one of the most frequently used applications for prediction markets. Fans enjoy trading positions in real-time as part of the excitement of watching sports competitions.
Politics Prediction markets for politics are an excellent mechanism for aggregating information about political races. They also allow users to hedge against possible outcomes.
Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrency prices are notoriously volatile. Zeitgeist allows traders to predict upcoming price and market milestones.
Insurance Markets for various events can serve as decentralized insurance, hedging outcomes.
Startups It's difficult to predict whether a particular startup will succeed. Prediction markets can help, allowing traders to take positions on the success or failure of these new companies.

This form of governance allows corporations, communities, or organizations to create a market based on a decision they want to make, and then open this market to the public, asking them to make predictions about which scenario will be the most successful. Futarchy is ideal for Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), and Zeitgeist as a decentralized organization will implement this form of governance as the primary consensus mechanism of its protocol.

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