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Bitcoin's price forecast hinges on skyrocketing open interest levels
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Bitcoin's price forecast hinges on skyrocketing open interest levels

Nov 7, 2023

Predictions indicating that the price of Bitcoin won't rise above $36,000 this week align with the spike in open interest, which is the largest in more than six months. On November 7, Bitcoin encountered resistance at $35,000 and fell towards $34,500. Although there was no obvious direction for the bitcoin market, analysts anticipated that volatility will soon return because of a large spike in open interest on derivatives markets.

Future fireworks were predicted by financial expert Tedtalksmacro, who wrote, "Almost 10k BTC (~$350MM USD) in open interest added today." Elevated open interest levels have historically been associated with higher market volatility.

Open interest is currently close to $15.5 billion. Institutional investors prefer the CME market, where 105,380 open BTC futures valued at $3.68 billion represent a significant milestone. With over 113,500 BTC in open interest, Binance overtook this amount, indicating increased interest in Bitcoin futures as well as a possible change in investor attitude or the adoption of defensive tactics.

But it's still unclear how this open interest phenomenon will affect the market. Some analysts, such as J. A. Maartunn of CryptoQuant, claim that historical data shows that when open interest reaches $12.2 billion, the price of Bitcoin will at least drop by 20%. This degree of market uncertainty may lead to more price volatility in the days ahead.

$36,000 was determined by monitoring resource Material Indicators to be a likely resistance level for the foreseeable future. Although this doesn't rule out a future break over $36,000, it indicates that it is unlikely to happen this week, and if a bullish breakout isn't verified this month, the previous range low of $25,000 to $28,500 takes on greater significance.

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