Coinbase did not see a stable relationship between halving and the price of Bitcoin and called for caution when assessing the prospects of the first cryptocurrency
On the eve of the Bitcoin halving, the Coinbase crypto exchange has prepared detailed instructions for investors. The guide contains an analysis of previous halvings and their impact on the Bitcoin price, and also takes into account current market features, such as the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs and the achievement of historical highs.

Coinbase analysts note that the current cycle is most reminiscent of the period 2018-2022, when the Bitcoin price first rose by 500% and then fell. Experts wrote in the report that Bitcoin has the potential to rise further ahead of the April halving, noting that the former cryptocurrency has risen 157% since October 2023.

Analysts agree that the first halving in history, which took place in 2012, became a catalyst for the rapid growth of Bitcoin. Six months before the 2012 halving, the rate of the first local currency soared by 139%, and within six months after it - by 923%. Experts noted that at that time, Bitcoin was still a relatively young asset, trading at a price of about $5 six months before the halving, Coinbase noted.

Subsequent halvings, although they did not demonstrate such phenomenal results, were also accompanied by an increase in the rate of the first cryptocurrency.

Contrary to expectations, immediately after the halving, which took place in 2016, there was no sharp growth in Bitcoin - the dynamics turned out to be more restrained. However, over the next 12 months, Bitcoin topped $1,120, more than double its pre-halving value.

The third halving (2020) led to a fall in the Bitcoin rate. However, the first cryptocurrency subsequently stabilized and began to grow, reaching a historical maximum price of about $69 thousand in November 2021.

Coinbase experts admit that the Bitcoin halving, scheduled for 2024, could have a positive impact on its rate. However, they note that historical data is insufficient, making the forecasts somewhat speculative.

Analysts include a possible reduction in the US Federal Reserve interest rate as a bullish signal for the price of Bitcoin - most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to lower its key interest rate in June - which could have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency rate.

Glassnode analysts note that the April halving could be a catalyst for an increase in the price of Bitcoin, but a more significant role may be played by the influence of American ETFs and the actions of long-term coin holders.

Analysts also noted that investors often include optimistic forecasts in the price of assets long before the occurrence of a certain event. In their opinion, inflated expectations of Bitcoin price growth may lead to a correction after halving.