The Polygon (MATIC) platform is gaining momentum, and we are analyzing what this could mean for a possible start of a price rally and the coin reaching the $1.24 mark.

Increasing the number of active addresses and strengthening the correlation with Ethereum create favorable conditions for MATIC, which stimulates the growth of the coin. We conducted an analysis using several indicators to predict the possible trajectory of the Polygon price.

The growth in the number of active addresses

Over the past 30 days, the number of active addresses on the Polygon network has increased by almost 60%. Historically, the data shows a strong relationship between the growth of active addresses and the price, which can be seen in the graph below.

As of February 6, 10,439 active addresses were registered. By March 3, this number had grown to 15,708. The price followed this trend, increasing by 37.35% over the same period, from $0.83 to $1.14. It is worth noting that MATIC has not reached the level of $1.14 since April 2023.

MATIC price and active addresses.

Currently, the situation is beginning to stabilize. Historical experience shows that a stop in the growth of active addresses often precedes a period of price stabilization/correction. The same scenario may unfold with MATIC.

Correlation with Ethereum: favorable prospects

Historically, Polygon prices are closely related to ETH prices — the correlation coefficient usually exceeds 0.8. In the last month, this relationship has strengthened, and the indicator increased from 0.5 on February 1 to 0.95 by March 6.

Given the current upward momentum of Ethereum, such a close correlation portends favorable prospects for MATIC and may push the token to the $1.24 mark.

Historical correlation of Matic and ETH.

On the other hand, if we consider the growth rates of ETH and MATIC this year, it becomes clear that there is a clear discrepancy. The price of ETH has increased 4.5 times more than Polygon. Based on the traditionally strong correlation of these two assets, it can be assumed that MATIC has the potential for further growth.

The price growth of MATIC and ETH since the beginning of the year. 

Further analysis shows that compared to the growth of the 10 largest cryptocurrencies, excluding memcoins and stablecoins, MATIC does not yet occupy the highest position, surpassing only AVAX.

Forecast for MATIC: it is possible to reach the $1.23 mark by March 15

An analysis of the IOMAP chart shows that strong support is concentrated at the $1.10 level, where a lot of buyers are concentrated. This level may become a barrier to further price reduction.

A break above the resistance level of $1.17 will be a strong signal in favor of the bulls and may provoke further price growth to the levels of $1.21 and possibly $1.24 or even higher. This is due to the fact that addresses that are "out of money", beyond $1.14, will begin to make a profit, which will reduce sales pressure.

However, if the current support levels are overcome, especially if the price falls below the large green bubble between $1.10 and $1.14, this could be the beginning of a bearish trend.