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Analysis of Bitcoin and Treasury Yield Correlation

Jun 12, 2024

According to data provided by Barchart, the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the 10-year Treasury yield has reached one of its lowest negative levels in 14 years. This week, the correlation declined to minus 53, indicating a significant shift.

A Treasury yield represents the return on investment for purchasing U.S. government obligations. Bond strategists anticipate that Treasury yields will stabilize in the near future with a slight decrease expected by the year-end.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield faced a sharp decline this year following investor expectations of multiple rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. However, it rebounded due to strong economic data and persistent inflation pressures.

The Federal Reserve's decision on rate cuts remains uncertain, with speculation ranging from two cuts to none in 2024. This ambiguity adds to the market uncertainty.

Recent market trends show that Bitcoin prices dropped to $66,000 on Tuesday after Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) halted their 19-day streak of inflows. Despite substantial inflows the previous week, Bitcoin failed to surpass the $72,000 mark due to better-than-expected job data.

Anticipation is high for potential volatility in Bitcoin prices this Wednesday, triggered by the impending consumer price index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement. Lower borrowing costs could favor risk assets like Bitcoin in the current economic climate.

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