1. Investor Skepticism Clouds Recent Rally
2. Bearish Sentiment Signals in Chinese Markets
3. Investor Fear in Bitcoin Futures Markets

Bitcoin closed at its highest level in two months on September 28 and is approaching the $66,000 mark. This movement followed gains in the S&P 500 index, which reached an all-time high on September 26, fueled by robust economic indicators and measures aimed at boosting markets in China. However, several metrics indicate that Bitcoin is far from entering a bull market.

Investor Skepticism Clouds Recent Rally

Investors could be skeptical due to previous rejections at $70,000 or fearing that a potential recession is underway, which would negatively impact risk-on markets, including cryptocurrencies. Although this sentiment does not guarantee a sell-off, it makes it easier for bears to instill fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) to suppress Bitcoin's price. Some analysts argue that central banks' shift to expansionist monetary policy indicates that economies are at risk. Meanwhile, for Bitcoin, investors might still value its scarcity and sovereignty, but its drivers significantly diverge from those of the traditional stock market. Therefore, even if the S&P 500 continues to make new highs, that does not necessarily mean Bitcoin's price will benefit. Bitcoin bulls need to analyze whether the underlying conditions have changed since the multiple rejections at $70,000 before concluding that lower interest rates and higher government debt are enough to push BTC's price higher.

Bearish Sentiment Signals in Chinese Markets

Inflows from institutional investors might have driven the recent surge in Bitcoin's price, and data from ETFs corroborate this thesis. However, recent data from Chinese markets show the opposite trend. By examining the demand for stablecoins in China, we can gauge whether investors are entering or exiting the cryptocurrency markets. The USDT premium in China has remained below parity for the past two weeks, indicating bearish sentiment. This metric contradicts the recent appetite for spot ETFs in the United States and further strengthens the bears' argument of a lack of investor demand.

Investor Fear in Bitcoin Futures Markets

Investor lack of conviction is also evident in the Bitcoin futures markets, even in monthly contracts typically preferred by whales and institutional investors. In neutral markets, these derivative contracts trade at a 5%-10% annualized premium. Data shows that the Bitcoin futures premium stabilized at 6% despite the rally to $66,000 on September 29. These savvy derivatives traders maintained their neutral stance, hinting at fear of missing out but also providing bears with a signal of a lack of conviction.

Even if the S&P 500 continues to reach new highs, it doesn't necessarily mean Bitcoin's price will follow. Investors should thoroughly analyze underlying conditions and potential risks before concluding on the prospects of Bitcoin's price increase.