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Bernstein's $150K Bitcoin Prediction and Ethereum ETF Impact

Apr 29, 2024

Bernstein analysts are holding firm on their prediction that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, despite anticipating a temporary slowdown in Bitcoin ETF flows. They attribute the slowdown to the 'halving' catalyst and the ETF's successful launch, expecting a surge after this pause.

The analysts observed peak inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs on March 12, with a net daily inflow of $1.05 billion as Bitcoin approached its latest all-time high. They believe it will take time for Bitcoin to gain acceptance as a portfolio recommendation and for platforms to establish compliance frameworks for selling ETF products.

Despite this, the analysts remain confident in their $150,000 Bitcoin target due to the $12 billion net inflows in spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the strong position of leading Bitcoin miners post-halving while transaction fees normalize.

Regarding Ethereum, the analysts foresee a potential boost if the U.S. SEC rejects spot Ethereum ETFs, shifting the market narrative back to Ethereum. They suggest that its under-performance against Bitcoin makes the risk-reward proposition attractive. Additionally, an outperformance by Ethereum could lead to a resurgence in 'ETH-beta' Layer 2 tokens like Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon.

The analysts discussed other crypto niches with growth potential, such as Solana's market dominance in USDC stablecoin volumes and potential mainstream payment integrations with Visa, Shopify, and Stripe. Uniswap, GMX, and Synthetix were highlighted as top DeFi sector proxies, while the Ronin blockchain's crypto gaming proxy saw steady growth. Finally, the analysts expect the total crypto market cap to triple to $7.5 trillion over the next 18 to 24 months.

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