Bitcoin is starting a new week, month, and quarter in 2024 with a number of new records being set. The question remains whether the bullish trend in the market can continue from this point onward.

The price action of Bitcoin made history on March 31 as the first quarter ended with the highest close ever recorded.

Even though old resistance is putting up a fight, there is an ongoing battle between buyers and sellers which is keeping the old all-time highs from 2021 as a relevant possibility. This has made price discovery challenging, with Bitcoin needing a push to $74,000 in order to break through most of the sell-side liquidity from latecomers.

As the second quarter begins, the stage is set for potentially volatile movements in the market. Additionally, the influence of classic macroeconomic data plays a role, with nonfarm payrolls scheduled for release from the United States at the end of the week.

As Bitcoin remains at higher levels, long-term holders are starting to take profits, going against the tide of institutional capital flowing into spot ETFs. Cointelegraph examines these and other issues that are likely to impact Bitcoin price action in the upcoming days.

BTC Price Achieves Record Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly Close

Bitcoin managed to deliver favorable results for bulls at the end of the first quarter. With the weekly, monthly, and quarterly closes on March 31 just below $70,300, it became the highest in history.

Following this achievement, there was a predicted retracement, with local lows of $68,900 being observed soon after.

Bitcoin remains stuck in a range familiar from the previous month on short timeframes, with $69,000, its old all-time high from 2021, still capturing market attention.

Traders like Skew are urging caution until clearer trend signals emerge, noting the importance of maintaining certain levels for market momentum.

Popular trader Rekt Capital is optimistic about Bitcoin's candle closes, expecting a confirmation of longer-term support. He believes that Bitcoin is on track to start the breakout process.

Meanwhile, Michaël van de Poppe predicts that Bitcoin's near future trend will depend on two key levels, $67,000 and $71,700 as pivotal points for market direction.

Powell, Unemployment to Lead U.S. Macro Calendar

The upcoming U.S. macro week is expected to bring a fresh appearance from Fed Chair Powell, along with several official announcements from senior Fed officials. The economic policy outlook remains positive, with interest rate cuts likely as the year progresses.

On April 3, Powell is scheduled to deliver prepared remarks, which will be followed by nonfarm payrolls data release on April 5. This data release has previously influenced Bitcoin price volatility.

Markets are optimistic about economic policy decisions, with a focus on employment data and Fed speeches as the second quarter kicks off.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Start Selling

As Bitcoin charts new territory, long-term holders are beginning to take profits. Data shows an increase in profit-taking activities from both short-term and long-term holders.

In the latest weekly report from Glassnode, it was revealed that long-term holders account for a significant portion of realized profits. The trend is changing, with overall profit-taking activities declining but long-term holders still actively participating in the market.

Analysts are starting to pay more attention to long-term holders as a potential factor in assessing sell-side supply pressure moving forward.

Bitcoin’s Price Compared to Historical Trends

Glassnode's analysis shows a close resemblance between current Bitcoin price action and its performance in previous bull markets. The data suggests that current market conditions closely resemble those of December 2020 in relation to the 2018-2021 cycle.

This comparison challenges the prevailing notion that institutional interest has fundamentally altered Bitcoin's price dynamics in 2024.

Gold, Stocks Set the Stage for Crypto Price Movements

Market sentiment indicates growing anticipation for price discovery in the crypto space. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows a return of "extreme greed" among participants, suggesting that traders are becoming increasingly optimistic.

This optimistic sentiment is partly driven by belief in risk assets and the potential for Bitcoin and altcoins to benefit from bullish movements in traditional markets like gold and stocks.

The market conditions are being closely monitored for any signs of irrational behavior, with a focus on how other sectors may influence the performance of cryptocurrencies.