Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a corrective phase for roughly three weeks amid declining demand and rising selling pressure. September has historically been a weak month for the digital asset, however, analysts believe the market could hit its bottom during this period.
Bitcoin Reaching Cyclical Low in September
A recent report by crypto exchange Bitfinex revealed that September has marked cyclical lows in post-halving years. These lows are often followed by a rally into the fourth quarter—price increases that mark the end of bull markets and the begining of bear cycles. Thus, September lays the foundation for renewed rallies in October and November.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
Bitcoin recently fell below $110,000, even slipping under its January 2025 high of $109,590. This range served as resistance for at least six months before Bitcoin broke it in July. With BTC ending a third consecutive week of decline from the all-time high of $123,640, market participants wonder if this is a temporary pause or the beginning of a deeper correction. Bitfinex analysts identified several factors suggesting that the market is in late stages of its corrective phase. Notably, pullbacks from cycle highs average around 17% peak-to-trough before new ATHs are eventually reached. With BTC already 13% down from its recent ATH, there may still be little room for more downside, but BTC is nearing the upper limit of this corrective phase.
Fundamental Analysis of Other Altcoins
Currently, BTC is trading at $110,000, a level below the lower boundary of a gap created when its price surged sharply without substantial supply. These gaps have historically been revisited and filled, which is why analysts expect the ongoing drawdown. The gap has been gradually filling, with the ongoing retracement triggering the redistribution of supply at discounted prices. While altcoins have not escaped unscathed in this pullback, the altcoin sector faced a challenging week, with most of the top ten major assets experiencing significant declines in value. Ether (ETH) recently hit an ATH but also tumbled afterward, despite persistent accumulation from institutional investors and exchange-traded funds.
September represents a critical period for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market as a whole, given historical behavior patterns and current market dynamics. Analyzing current trends can help market participants prepare for potential changes in the price structure.
